Traders are pricing roughly 50-50 odds on a rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting, and are pricing 100 basis points of hikes by June. Higher fuel costs risk bleeding into everything else people buy, while trade tensions with the U.S. threaten growth from the other direction. Central banks are built to solve one problem at a time. This is two problems pulling in opposite directions, and consensus-based decision-making doesn't make that easier — it just hides the disagreement until the statement comes out.