Brazil Voters Doubt Lula's Economic Recovery
Pomegranates and Other Fruit in a Landscape — Abraham Brueghel,
What Happened
Ahead of next month's election, President Lula is touting record-low unemployment and cooling inflation to defend his fourth-term bid against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Polls show a dead-heat race, with nearly half of Brazilians saying the economy has actually gotten worse this year.
Why It Matters
The macro numbers say one thing. Grocery bills, betting debt, and 26.6% of income going to non-mortgage debt service say another. Economists have a term for the gap now — 'vibecession' — but the feeling predates the word, and it's the same one that cornered Biden in 2024. Good statistics don't spend like good statistics feel.
What's Next
Welfare payments rise 15% before the runoff, and online betting gets banned starting October 6.